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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/21 11:03

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 50. The dollar index is 5 
points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are flat. Livestock 
trade is mixed. Precious metals are mostly higher with gold $3.00 lower.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments




   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from the 
upper end of the range to start the week as we try to find some equilibrium 
after the moves at the end of last week. Ethanol margins remain tight, with 
futures just above the lows with export business needing to pick up, or we will 
likely see plants being idled again soon. U.S. weather will likely limit 
short-term movement in most areas with warmer weather expected to be on the 
way. Basis should remain sideways to slightly firmer. Export inspections were 
soft at 345,589 metric tons with trade looking for confirmation of last week's 
rumored sales with the wire quiet today. On the March contract support is the 
20-day at $3.86, with resistance the recent high at $3.92.


   Soybeans trade is 11 to 13 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back 
with South American harvest getting underway along with limited short-term 
weather issues, and no major export sales from the U.S. confirmed yet. Meal is 
flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 65 to 75 points lower. The Brazilian ral 
remains very cheap as well hurting U.S. export competitiveness. South American 
weather remains within the recent pattern for soybeans as well. Basis has 
remained firm at processors with the strong crush margins. Weekly export 
inspections are expected to be in the 1.199 million metric ton range. The March 
chart support is at the December gap at $9.15 with resistance the 20-day at 


   Wheat trade 2 to 7 cents higher with Chicago taking the midday lead again 
with spreads testing the recent highs. Cold threats remain limited for the 
plains with most of the moisture staying to the east, with western snow cover 
remaining limited, and warmer temps expected to return to most short term. KC 
is at an 80 cent discount to Chicago, while Minneapolis is back to a 12 cent 
discount. Weekly export inspections were rangebound at 435,129 metric tons. The 
March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day moving average at $4.81, with 
resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 5.04.


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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